Source: People's Daily Online Author: Gao Qiao July 16, 2024 12:37:03
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) recently released a report showing that in the first quarter of 2024, global trade trends improved, with goods trade increasing by about 1% month on month and services trade increasing by about 1.5% month on month. The global trade growth in the first quarter was driven by positive trade dynamics in the United States and developing countries, especially in Asia. Expert analysis points out that global trade is currently emerging from the haze, and developing countries are expected to contribute stronger growth momentum. The "vibrant Asia" will add brightness to the recovery of global trade growth.
The recovery trend is obvious
The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released its latest trade statistics, showing that global commodity trade volume turned to growth in the first quarter of 2024 after remaining flat for the entire year of 2023: compared to the previous quarter, commodity trade measured by average imports and exports increased by 1.0% in the first quarter. Compared to the same period in 2023, the trade volume in the first quarter also increased by 1.4%.
The report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that in the first quarter of this year, the import and export trade of most regions around the world showed positive growth in line with the global trend, with strong trade growth in East Asia and the Americas. China's trade exports increased by 9% month on month, ranking first among major economies in the world, while India's exports increased by 7% month on month during the same period. Matching the strong trade performance of developing countries is a 2% month on month increase in South South trade, mainly occurring within the East Asian region. Among developed countries, the United States has performed well in trade, achieving a 3% month on month increase in exports, but Europe's performance is not satisfactory, with import and export trade continuing to decline simultaneously.
From the perspective of segmented industries, there are significant differences in trade growth among various industries worldwide. The report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that the growth of green energy and artificial intelligence related products is stronger. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, the trade volume of high-performance servers increased by 25%, while the trade volume of other computers and storage devices increased by 8%. The trade volume of electric vehicles has also increased significantly, with a growth rate of about 25%. In many countries, the demand for electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, and high-end semiconductors is expected to further increase.
The trade growth performance in the Asian region is quite impressive, especially in East Asia and Southeast Asia where the manufacturing industry is showing a clear recovery trend, "said Zhang Monan, Deputy Director and Researcher of the US Europe Research Department at the China International Economic Exchange Center, in an interview with our reporter. On the one hand, since the beginning of this year, South Korea's exports have grown significantly, reflecting an important trend of increasing global trade vitality. As the "canary" of global trade, South Korea's export data has a certain "barometer" meaning for observing changes in global trade. On the other hand, as a core link in the Asian industrial chain and supply chain, China's manufacturing industry has been upgraded and upgraded, and the "new three types" of exports such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products have made significant contributions to the growth of global commodity trade. In addition, China and ASEAN are each other's largest trading partners, and the deepening of industrial chain cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has played a significant role in driving ASEAN countries to increase imports and exports.
Overall environmental improvement
The report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development states that overall, the slowing global inflation and improved economic growth forecasts indicate that the macroeconomic downturn trend that has been ongoing is reversing. In addition, the increasing demand for products related to energy transition and artificial intelligence will also promote trade growth in 2024.
Since the beginning of this year, the recovery and growth of global trade have been related to changes in the global economic environment and geopolitical background. Zhang Monan pointed out that in the first two years, global trade growth has slowed down due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, significant increases in global energy prices, rising commodity prices, disruptions in global supply chains, and widespread interest rate hikes by developed countries to curb inflation. Since the beginning of this year, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the economy has relatively weakened, global energy and commodity prices have fallen, inflation in developed countries has eased, and the overall environment for global trade has gradually improved.
"China's expanding opening-up has played an important role in unleashing trade vitality in Asia." Xie Laihui, director of the "the Belt and Road" Research Office of the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed in an interview with our reporter. On the one hand, since this year, the scale of commodity trade between China and its Asian neighbors, such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, has grown significantly. The supply of China's "new three" products to Asian countries is growing rapidly. On the other hand, thanks to China's unilateral visa free policies for citizens of multiple countries and 72/144 hour transit visa free policies adopted in the first half of this year, the rapid increase in foreign visitors to China and the rapid increase in the number of Chinese outbound travelers have also promoted the growth of Sino foreign service trade.
It is worth mentioning that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) promotes regional economic integration and trade facilitation, effectively reduces trade costs among member countries, improves trade efficiency, and plays a positive role in promoting trade growth in the Asian region, "said Zhang Monan.
We must adhere to openness
Global trade is not currently at its best, "WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo Iweala said recently." We are seeing increasing protectionism and some WTO rules being violated, some of which are leading to the fragmentation of global trade. Global trade should be one of the lifelines for countries to maintain recovery and support economic growth, so we are concerned about this
The BBC website recently reported that the European Union has announced plans to impose temporary tariffs of up to 37.6% on imported Chinese electric vehicles. Previously, the United States imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles in May and increased import tariffs on a range of Chinese products, including electric vehicle batteries and their minerals, batteries required for manufacturing solar panels, and computer chips (chips). The US government has previously passed the Inflation Reduction Act, investing billions of dollars in green technology in the country.
Currently, a few developed countries are implementing trade protectionism policies, setting trade barriers for foreign enterprises, providing large subsidies for domestic enterprises, and transforming more and more international trade into domestic production and consumption. This not only increases the trade costs of related enterprises, but also destroys the original structure of the global supply chain, industrial chain, and value chain, which has a negative impact on global trade growth and economic globalization, "said Xie Laihui.